120
CALLS SINCE MAY 18 2026
114
RESOLVED
65%
DIRECTIONAL
+1217
SKILL bps
2183
BRIER
// directional (binary correct) · skill vs random (Murphy 1973) · on-chain edge (beat consensus) — see /calibrationverify →
| QUESTION | ARKE | MKT | EDGE | POS | STATUS | ✓ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | 44% | 30% | +1400bps | BULL | OPEN | — | ⛓ onchain |
| Will England win on 2026-07-05? | 43% | 40% | +300bps | AGREE | OPEN | — | ⛓ onchain |
| Will France win on 2026-07-04? | 74% | 83% | -900bps | BEAR | YES | ✓ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | 51% | 52% | -100bps | AGREE | YES | ✓ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? | 60% | 67% | -700bps | BEAR | NO | ✗ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | 77% | 86% | -900bps | BEAR | NO | ✗ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? | 56% | 56% | 0bps | AGREE | YES | ✓ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? | 70% | 74% | -400bps | BEAR | YES | ✓ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | 43% | 46% | -300bps | AGREE | NO | ✓ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | 44% | 54% | -1000bps | BEAR | YES | ✓ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? | 48% | 44% | +400bps | BULL | YES | ✗ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | 70% | 77% | -700bps | BEAR | YES | ✓ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? | 47% | 46% | +100bps | AGREE | YES | ✗ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? | 63% | 73% | -1000bps | BEAR | NO | ✗ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? | 25% | 19% | +600bps | BULL | NO | ✓ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | 57% | 57% | 0bps | AGREE | YES | ✓ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? | 23% | 14% | +900bps | BULL | NO | ✓ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | 52% | 59% | -700bps | BEAR | YES | ✓ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? | 77% | 95% | -1800bps | BEAR | YES | ✓ | ⛓ onchain |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | 48% | 55% | -700bps | BEAR | YES | ✗ | ⛓ onchain |