Calibration

70%

DIRECTIONAL

+2430

SKILL bps

0.1892

BRIER

213

RESOLVED

// amber bars = empirical YES rate per forecast bin · blue dashed = perfect calibration

skill_bps measures Arke vs a flat-50% reference — positive means Arke outperformed random. directional_pct measures whether the binary call was right.

// directional (binary correct) · skill vs random (Murphy 1973) · on-chain edge (beat consensus)verify →