ARKE/oracle verification
// immutable prediction ledger

PredictionMarketOracle.sol

200
PREDICTIONS
200
RESOLVED
Arc Testnet
CHAIN
#20360
ERC-8004 ID
View contract on Arc Explorer →ERC-8004 Identity #20360 →ERC-8004 Reputation →
// ERC-8004 registered agent #20360 — Identity + Reputation registries on Arc testnet. Skill score (Murphy 1973) is written to the Reputation Registry as a self-attestation after each resolver run. see calibration →
// verify it yourself

1. Open the contract on Arc explorer (link above)

2. Call getPredictionCount() — should return 200

3. Call getAccuracy() — edge-vs-market metric (requires Arke to beat consensus)

4. Each tx hash below links to the individual prediction record

5. Resolution txs contain the outcome and correctness score

// contract address: 0x767D0eD2850D57C4EF969976088Be44A5Adcfa07
// resolved predictions — 200 of 200
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-08-09?✗ INCORRECT
arke 40% vs mkt 66%2026-08-09
log tx: 0x994062685bff0293… →resolve tx: 0x029033acfac6598a… →@arke_ai →
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?✗ INCORRECT
arke 59% vs mkt 62%2026-08-08
log tx: 0xdd77619d88a08592… →resolve tx: 0x430a43a7d22c67b3… →@arke_ai →
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?✓ CORRECT
arke 14% vs mkt 11%2026-08-07
log tx: 0xf87c02d72ac62888… →resolve tx: 0x0933ca9c17e12b51… →@arke_ai →
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 7?✗ INCORRECT
arke 35% vs mkt 35%2026-08-07
log tx: 0x414b94d6388216b1… →resolve tx: 0xa7be15caf89a4033… →@arke_ai →
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-08-06?✓ CORRECT
arke 63% vs mkt 67%2026-08-07
log tx: 0x0cf66ea99d102c76… →resolve tx: 0x40e5c7643767500b… →@arke_ai →
Will RSC Anderlecht win on 2026-08-06?✓ CORRECT
arke 53% vs mkt 56%2026-08-06
log tx: 0x0635a217ddbb4197… →resolve tx: 0x2c96435340527337… →@arke_ai →
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?✗ INCORRECT
arke 49% vs mkt 45%2026-08-06
log tx: 0x4efdae9b7bc371cb… →resolve tx: 0x6c597f906fc59f69… →@arke_ai →
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 6?✓ CORRECT
arke 5% vs mkt 5%2026-08-06
log tx: 0x23f66217b328e562… →resolve tx: 0xa2dc1e897f365475… →@arke_ai →
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-08-05?✓ CORRECT
arke 42% vs mkt 37%2026-08-06
log tx: 0x1b864fc7e5a6ca95… →resolve tx: 0xda6dd010d2ab5109… →@arke_ai →
Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-05?✗ INCORRECT
arke 60% vs mkt 45%2026-08-05
log tx: 0x0dd3ffb70f9a3966… →resolve tx: 0xf1318bdc14bf808e… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: CF Villarreal C 0 - 0 Levante UD?✓ CORRECT
arke 6% vs mkt 10%2026-08-05
log tx: 0x47b57ad20605c305… →resolve tx: 0xd38060911b346223… →@arke_ai →
Will Santos FC win on 2026-08-04?✗ INCORRECT
arke 50% vs mkt 63%2026-08-05
log tx: 0x919aeebf651ec545… →resolve tx: 0x5a2b048a8cd7badb… →@arke_ai →
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-08-04?✓ CORRECT
arke 32% vs mkt 25%2026-08-04
log tx: 0xba9f2b36dfbcd14d… →resolve tx: 0xd0763cc06f5658ad… →@arke_ai →
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?✓ CORRECT
arke 88% vs mkt 87%2026-08-04
log tx: 0xb3e596e7c591d410… →resolve tx: 0xdb7f28044fdaa29b… →@arke_ai →
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?✓ CORRECT
arke 46% vs mkt 14%2026-08-04
log tx: 0xa885135ca82957ad… →resolve tx: 0x6eefee7c1f9a559a… →@arke_ai →
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 4?✓ CORRECT
arke 93% vs mkt 91%2026-08-04
log tx: 0x98dd3ff03d136b8f… →resolve tx: 0xfa831a07b9624214… →@arke_ai →
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-08-03?✓ CORRECT
arke 91% vs mkt 95%2026-08-03
log tx: 0x189f3ace89f9154e… →resolve tx: 0x7ced62e2613cbdab… →@arke_ai →
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?✓ CORRECT
arke 18% vs mkt 18%2026-08-03
log tx: 0xf87c02d72ac62888… →resolve tx: 0x0933ca9c17e12b51… →@arke_ai →
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?✓ CORRECT
arke 76% vs mkt 91%2026-08-03
log tx: 0xe62af8fbdd6e1e5c… →resolve tx: 0x763ce9312c47d542… →@arke_ai →
Will Malmo FF win on 2026-08-02?✗ INCORRECT
arke 48% vs mkt 41%2026-08-02
log tx: 0x84260a4985cc28eb… →resolve tx: 0x542d1d4cb40862ae… →@arke_ai →
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?✓ CORRECT
arke 82% vs mkt 95%2026-08-02
log tx: 0xf0eb5148b8659aae… →resolve tx: 0x9b989e5e2b1b1ded… →@arke_ai →
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?✓ CORRECT
arke 71% vs mkt 85%2026-08-01
log tx: 0xdc045bcd094edb69… →resolve tx: 0x1a761d3dfa2dbef5… →@arke_ai →
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?✓ CORRECT
arke 68% vs mkt 82%2026-08-01
log tx: 0x3539017d11367639… →resolve tx: 0x43ba09a99c37fb81… →@arke_ai →
Will New York City FC win on 2026-07-31?✗ INCORRECT
arke 62% vs mkt 57%2026-07-31
log tx: 0xb3b45f9e06304039… →resolve tx: 0x22bed0f640332399… →@arke_ai →
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?✗ INCORRECT
arke 5% vs mkt 5%2026-07-31
log tx: 0x9b3d34abc6680c25… →resolve tx: 0xcf51b28f6ffbff91… →@arke_ai →
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?✓ CORRECT
arke 5% vs mkt 6%2026-07-31
log tx: 0xcd48e6be8ef9c686… →resolve tx: 0xf5e76f7ee798dd76… →@arke_ai →
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?✗ INCORRECT
arke 77% vs mkt 89%2026-07-30
log tx: 0xf336421a72942f8f… →resolve tx: 0x433275459019d0f5… →@arke_ai →
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?✗ INCORRECT
arke 39% vs mkt 21%2026-07-30
log tx: 0x4a7728fc244d6ec7… →resolve tx: 0xa7a82577d41ba6da… →@arke_ai →
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?✗ INCORRECT
arke 58% vs mkt 71%2026-07-30
log tx: 0xbb387f999d92b4ce… →resolve tx: 0x42e7c6389e15cd2a… →@arke_ai →
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-07-29?✗ INCORRECT
arke 47% vs mkt 43%2026-07-30
log tx: 0x30ff8cc98fa04fdd… →resolve tx: 0xd093b49ed9c3aed1… →@arke_ai →
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?✓ CORRECT
arke 34% vs mkt 24%2026-07-29
log tx: 0x81425db925e14a7a… →resolve tx: 0xa65de7ad76506798… →@arke_ai →
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?✓ CORRECT
arke 21% vs mkt 24%2026-07-29
log tx: 0x3fd062cbcd35699b… →resolve tx: 0xd82681839265ebd4… →@arke_ai →
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?✓ CORRECT
arke 9% vs mkt 8%2026-07-29
log tx: 0x9e0ccf20309c20e0… →resolve tx: 0x8572a24c435a2ca6… →@arke_ai →
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?✗ INCORRECT
arke 44% vs mkt 22%2026-07-29
log tx: 0x3830c11b0303c3d4… →resolve tx: 0x2cf75d2f217127be… →@arke_ai →
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-07-28?✓ CORRECT
arke 39% vs mkt 47%2026-07-28
log tx: 0x2fa19c19148e90ae… →resolve tx: 0x83883b7fe2e8d4dd… →@arke_ai →
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?✓ CORRECT
arke 68% vs mkt 75%2026-07-28
log tx: 0x0b12b8315839ad88… →resolve tx: 0x743ba323e2bf6bf3… →@arke_ai →
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?✓ CORRECT
arke 15% vs mkt 18%2026-07-28
log tx: 0x9e0ccf20309c20e0… →resolve tx: 0x8572a24c435a2ca6… →@arke_ai →
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?✗ INCORRECT
arke 49% vs mkt 76%2026-07-28
log tx: 0x9b3d34abc6680c25… →resolve tx: 0xcf51b28f6ffbff91… →@arke_ai →
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?✓ CORRECT
arke 7% vs mkt 5%2026-07-27
log tx: 0x842eef4520d6e128… →resolve tx: 0x8e29b46cf18e7eed… →@arke_ai →
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?✓ CORRECT
arke 35% vs mkt 31%2026-07-27
log tx: 0xaccc884dec2401a8… →resolve tx: 0xe1b2eae98e8d7b6d… →@arke_ai →
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?✓ CORRECT
arke 9% vs mkt 12%2026-07-27
log tx: 0x98bedbc7d54a194e… →resolve tx: 0x5dd5adef8623acf7… →@arke_ai →
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-07-26?✗ INCORRECT
arke 70% vs mkt 59%2026-07-27
log tx: 0xaced90bc53bc93e1… →resolve tx: 0xcc2df6f1d812151b… →@arke_ai →
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-07-26?✗ INCORRECT
arke 59% vs mkt 57%2026-07-26
log tx: 0x93158b7ff113efc4… →resolve tx: 0x62a619e1b9ec1319… →@arke_ai →
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?✓ CORRECT
arke 16% vs mkt 19%2026-07-26
log tx: 0x3fd062cbcd35699b… →resolve tx: 0xd82681839265ebd4… →@arke_ai →
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?✗ INCORRECT
arke 31% vs mkt 38%2026-07-26
log tx: 0x4a7728fc244d6ec7… →resolve tx: 0xa7a82577d41ba6da… →@arke_ai →
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?✓ CORRECT
arke 68% vs mkt 80%2026-07-25
log tx: 0x47eb9375865195f0… →resolve tx: 0x933bf273577c4fec… →@arke_ai →
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?✓ CORRECT
arke 61% vs mkt 74%2026-07-25
log tx: 0x0b12b8315839ad88… →resolve tx: 0x743ba323e2bf6bf3… →@arke_ai →
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?✓ CORRECT
arke 69% vs mkt 77%2026-07-24
log tx: 0x9a211aa23db4f94d… →resolve tx: 0x0074678d56786358… →@arke_ai →
Will Hammarby Fotboll win on 2026-07-23?✓ CORRECT
arke 15% vs mkt 10%2026-07-23
log tx: 0x56935e5901aaf356… →resolve tx: 0x3e7aeeddf508ea93… →@arke_ai →
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-07-22?✗ INCORRECT
arke 48% vs mkt 52%2026-07-23
log tx: 0x77eacc2437e0bb02… →resolve tx: 0xff14031337e59bad… →@arke_ai →
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?✓ CORRECT
arke 31% vs mkt 14%2026-07-22
log tx: 0x3fd062cbcd35699b… →resolve tx: 0xd82681839265ebd4… →@arke_ai →
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?✓ CORRECT
arke 71% vs mkt 85%2026-07-22
log tx: 0x0b12b8315839ad88… →resolve tx: 0x743ba323e2bf6bf3… →@arke_ai →
Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2026-07-21?✓ CORRECT
arke 62% vs mkt 70%2026-07-21
@arke_ai →
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?✓ CORRECT
arke 6% vs mkt 10%2026-07-21
resolve tx: 0x310a5ee06f6f0fa9… →@arke_ai →
Will Sabah FK win on 2026-07-21?✓ CORRECT
arke 58% vs mkt 59%2026-07-20
log tx: 0xbf5b4e8e7527e7ad… →resolve tx: 0xe6bbcce69369dded… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?✓ CORRECT
arke 14% vs mkt 13%2026-07-19
log tx: 0x96b480d1b972cb89… →resolve tx: 0x9d455566d8e66e1b… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?✓ CORRECT
arke 8% vs mkt 8%2026-07-19
log tx: 0x02e55de11c420ea3… →resolve tx: 0xbe56efb9d918edfd… →@arke_ai →
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?✓ CORRECT
arke 48% vs mkt 42%2026-07-19
log tx: 0x08364582e0469b51… →resolve tx: 0x725a7060b03467f5… →@arke_ai →
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?✓ CORRECT
arke 31% vs mkt 27%2026-07-19
log tx: 0xb1a52c3e4a2ad6bb… →resolve tx: 0x39ee44970e440f81… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 England?✓ CORRECT
arke 13% vs mkt 12%2026-07-18
log tx: 0xd6076973e15de880… →resolve tx: 0xa3ab7af3db19ae9d… →@arke_ai →
Will France win on 2026-07-18?✓ CORRECT
arke 47% vs mkt 52%2026-07-18
log tx: 0x1aadd8a0f743e513… →resolve tx: 0xe02ff0af8aad49da… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Argentina?✓ CORRECT
arke 8% vs mkt 5%2026-07-18
log tx: 0x84f0c2610d6403bb… →resolve tx: 0xde29d96bca85a01b… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 England?✓ CORRECT
arke 6% vs mkt 5%2026-07-18
log tx: 0xcf2b509cc4823235… →resolve tx: 0x1ae24c0ebbf696e2… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?✓ CORRECT
arke 10% vs mkt 10%2026-07-17
log tx: 0x96b480d1b972cb89… →resolve tx: 0x9d455566d8e66e1b… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?✓ CORRECT
arke 9% vs mkt 7%2026-07-17
log tx: 0x02e55de11c420ea3… →resolve tx: 0xbe56efb9d918edfd… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 England?✓ CORRECT
arke 9% vs mkt 7%2026-07-17
log tx: 0x1dced74ff630e58c… →resolve tx: 0xd6b33278b58c3c21… →@arke_ai →
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?✓ CORRECT
arke 40% vs mkt 43%2026-07-17
log tx: 0x08364582e0469b51… →resolve tx: 0x725a7060b03467f5… →@arke_ai →
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?✓ CORRECT
arke 26% vs mkt 27%2026-07-16
log tx: 0xb1a52c3e4a2ad6bb… →resolve tx: 0x39ee44970e440f81… →@arke_ai →
Will France win on 2026-07-18?✓ CORRECT
arke 48% vs mkt 50%2026-07-16
log tx: 0x1aadd8a0f743e513… →resolve tx: 0xe02ff0af8aad49da… →@arke_ai →
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?✓ CORRECT
arke 20% vs mkt 5%2026-07-16
log tx: 0x676cb3e8c20669db… →resolve tx: 0x6951ca3c68c6b35d… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Argentina?✓ CORRECT
arke 17% vs mkt 9%2026-07-15
log tx: 0xc1dc8de1a144fc2d… →resolve tx: 0x63a953137a0e43d4… →@arke_ai →
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?✗ INCORRECT
arke 37% vs mkt 31%2026-07-15
log tx: 0x18fc48a5ab0dea13… →resolve tx: 0xd9c26a1134f7636d… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Argentina?✓ CORRECT
arke 14% vs mkt 11%2026-07-14
log tx: 0x7e74f4b1a893c847… →resolve tx: 0x687c1e15ef4c0829… →@arke_ai →
Will England win on 2026-07-15?✓ CORRECT
arke 42% vs mkt 36%2026-07-14
log tx: 0x2f537addd531dbd4… →resolve tx: 0x280268c73fdb7e4e… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Spain?✓ CORRECT
arke 11% vs mkt 8%2026-07-13
log tx: 0x29c1a7e13a0c5add… →resolve tx: 0xf5ebdb434272d484… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?✓ CORRECT
arke 16% vs mkt 11%2026-07-13
log tx: 0x9bd046db3b895cbd… →resolve tx: 0xeeb51ed4726b3672… →@arke_ai →
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?✗ INCORRECT
arke 38% vs mkt 29%2026-07-13
log tx: 0xc10db17342738d37… →resolve tx: 0xddb06834d82eab3a… →@arke_ai →
Will France win on 2026-07-14?✓ CORRECT
arke 40% vs mkt 42%2026-07-12
log tx: 0x560f50ec2da8f392… →resolve tx: 0x8fef49ef327250d1… →@arke_ai →
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?✓ CORRECT
arke 19% vs mkt 14%2026-07-12
log tx: 0x7e4359616220609e… →resolve tx: 0xc95d237e95551344… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 England?✓ CORRECT
arke 16% vs mkt 7%2026-07-11
log tx: 0xd169cb85b898e748… →resolve tx: 0x1ddf5bf3ee6a79bc… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?✓ CORRECT
arke 22% vs mkt 12%2026-07-11
log tx: 0x93203fce7fee2e44… →resolve tx: 0xb1ccec47d7b1ac9f… →@arke_ai →
Will England win on 2026-07-11?✗ INCORRECT
arke 52% vs mkt 51%2026-07-11
log tx: 0x204ff9cfc49181b4… →resolve tx: 0xe829efe48e3a9607… →@arke_ai →
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?✓ CORRECT
arke 20% vs mkt 16%2026-07-10
log tx: 0xb1935d5b144ec3f9… →resolve tx: 0x98d3eaef3d75ccdc… →@arke_ai →
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?✗ INCORRECT
arke 58% vs mkt 57%2026-07-10
log tx: 0x056f4f61d2ae0648… →resolve tx: 0x346021b11747ee83… →@arke_ai →
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?✓ CORRECT
arke 33% vs mkt 22%2026-07-10
log tx: 0x6fc387d9a8d96782… →resolve tx: 0xad794114cfc76f98… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?✓ CORRECT
arke 16% vs mkt 7%2026-07-09
log tx: 0xaf3edaf3364de8f4… →resolve tx: 0x7c33e4c5084ca001… →@arke_ai →
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?✓ CORRECT
arke 57% vs mkt 60%2026-07-09
log tx: 0x19b0c94882e116ba… →resolve tx: 0xac4ec760357cf7fb… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?✓ CORRECT
arke 18% vs mkt 11%2026-07-08
log tx: 0xdac986fe5a64abe8… →resolve tx: 0x1f1fc56e53d5cef1… →@arke_ai →
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?✓ CORRECT
arke 22% vs mkt 15%2026-07-08
resolve tx: 0x5604f22646fd4f19… →@arke_ai →
Will France win on 2026-07-09?✓ CORRECT
arke 58% vs mkt 63%2026-07-08
log tx: 0xe2bdebb730319eaa… →resolve tx: 0xd83d05ad8d5396e1… →@arke_ai →
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?✓ CORRECT
arke 31% vs mkt 43%2026-07-07
log tx: 0xe59440e1152530da… →resolve tx: 0x0d0e821cd97724c5… →@arke_ai →
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?✓ CORRECT
arke 52% vs mkt 49%2026-07-06
log tx: 0xf8f689398fa2222c… →resolve tx: 0xda93b238a3961a85… →@arke_ai →
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 England?✓ CORRECT
arke 23% vs mkt 10%2026-07-06
log tx: 0x16d6e1846e98f509… →resolve tx: 0xd7278a9f4fa0e1e8… →@arke_ai →
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?✗ INCORRECT
arke 56% vs mkt 55%2026-07-05
log tx: 0x5f3cdaef84085140… →resolve tx: 0xd662ca44f9ff6274… →@arke_ai →
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?✓ CORRECT
arke 44% vs mkt 30%2026-07-05
log tx: 0xb660d867a3985688… →resolve tx: 0x4804ced57deb9919… →@arke_ai →
Will England win on 2026-07-05?✗ INCORRECT
arke 43% vs mkt 40%2026-07-05
log tx: 0x667fc8832de40394… →resolve tx: 0xcbbfdff3d2dc3d45… →@arke_ai →
Will France win on 2026-07-04?✓ CORRECT
arke 74% vs mkt 83%2026-07-04
log tx: 0x9843f0a3216eaa9f… →resolve tx: 0xbcff31fcabf88bd0… →@arke_ai →
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?✓ CORRECT
arke 51% vs mkt 52%2026-07-04
log tx: 0x227e9153ffbc6c99… →resolve tx: 0x60ffa8e732bd795e… →@arke_ai →
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?✗ INCORRECT
arke 60% vs mkt 67%2026-07-03
log tx: 0x4abc916168537d1e… →resolve tx: 0xf2cc5d7a0c98dcd5… →@arke_ai →
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?✗ INCORRECT
arke 77% vs mkt 86%2026-07-03
log tx: 0xbb520b715a0892f1… →resolve tx: 0xb4ff422c85e2ce80… →@arke_ai →
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?✓ CORRECT
arke 56% vs mkt 56%2026-07-02
log tx: 0x17b3ad1263fedfcb… →resolve tx: 0x540455dfe2292786… →@arke_ai →
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?✓ CORRECT
arke 70% vs mkt 74%2026-07-02
log tx: 0x1a353e083ef08bc9… →resolve tx: 0x8689d8aadd9132ed… →@arke_ai →
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?✓ CORRECT
arke 43% vs mkt 46%2026-07-01
log tx: 0x4c4485443e5b77e8… →resolve tx: 0x257fea78d1b40ae2… →@arke_ai →
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?✓ CORRECT
arke 44% vs mkt 54%2026-07-01
log tx: 0x227e9153ffbc6c99… →resolve tx: 0x60ffa8e732bd795e… →@arke_ai →
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?✗ INCORRECT
arke 48% vs mkt 44%2026-06-30
log tx: 0x3b34d19748d00d5d… →resolve tx: 0x5025c7e88075248c… →@arke_ai →
Will France win on 2026-06-30?✓ CORRECT
arke 70% vs mkt 77%2026-06-30
log tx: 0x70a7c5cda2a9c38b… →resolve tx: 0x4fd410bb42634238… →@arke_ai →
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?✗ INCORRECT
arke 47% vs mkt 46%2026-06-30
log tx: 0xa0330c13ff6f1f3a… →resolve tx: 0x8904c7b07909647c… →@arke_ai →
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?✗ INCORRECT
arke 63% vs mkt 73%2026-06-30
log tx: 0x337a8f84a20ec788… →resolve tx: 0x0a22e59887058970… →@arke_ai →
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?✓ CORRECT
arke 25% vs mkt 19%2026-06-29
log tx: 0x2d7df52c8921e4ef… →resolve tx: 0x9ba8d769d57872e6… →@arke_ai →
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?✓ CORRECT
arke 57% vs mkt 57%2026-06-29
log tx: 0x7806bc65fde4ef99… →resolve tx: 0xdfcc5d3ea88e0f57… →@arke_ai →
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?✓ CORRECT
arke 23% vs mkt 14%2026-06-28
log tx: 0xef62355fce5d492b… →resolve tx: 0x71ffcecb638b20c0… →@arke_ai →
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?✓ CORRECT
arke 52% vs mkt 59%2026-06-28
log tx: 0x2c772dcdd285e54f… →resolve tx: 0x12962cb9c34dfd94… →@arke_ai →
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?✓ CORRECT
arke 77% vs mkt 95%2026-06-28
log tx: 0xf0cfab6cca293af8… →resolve tx: 0x275db05f513e9f34… →@arke_ai →
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?✗ INCORRECT
arke 48% vs mkt 55%2026-06-27
log tx: 0xdaf65729ee5e66be… →resolve tx: 0x99cbe395bd7478fd… →@arke_ai →
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?✓ CORRECT
arke 45% vs mkt 50%2026-06-27
log tx: 0xff12df6ddc5d1040… →resolve tx: 0xaf0f33e17c580e24… →@arke_ai →
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?✓ CORRECT
arke 42% vs mkt 37%2026-06-27
log tx: 0xf8b80fde0ec0e3b2… →resolve tx: 0xbbef5f6d7dbbc53b… →@arke_ai →
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?✓ CORRECT
arke 35% vs mkt 13%2026-06-26
log tx: 0xbe960c0d45e29a15… →resolve tx: 0xcddc4868d823c987… →@arke_ai →
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?✓ CORRECT
arke 36% vs mkt 25%2026-06-26
log tx: 0xdc9c73a83a255807… →resolve tx: 0x824a03784eec8b54… →@arke_ai →
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?✗ INCORRECT
arke 30% vs mkt 21%2026-06-25
log tx: 0xfe39aa4d14dca2e6… →resolve tx: 0xadae59fe2954c771… →@arke_ai →
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?✓ CORRECT
arke 47% vs mkt 53%2026-06-25
log tx: 0xe097ccdc8428d8b9… →resolve tx: 0x4334cdc176e4a974… →@arke_ai →
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?✗ INCORRECT
arke 56% vs mkt 65%2026-06-25
log tx: 0xb65793693f85d05a… →resolve tx: 0x1f4b1615ed5a0368… →@arke_ai →
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?✓ CORRECT
arke 58% vs mkt 80%2026-06-24
log tx: 0x4049f19b16ce1240… →resolve tx: 0x3f57b74890b9b0db… →@arke_ai →
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?✓ CORRECT
arke 51% vs mkt 51%2026-06-24
log tx: 0x9fedce44851c02e8… →resolve tx: 0xc981d52521f1113d… →@arke_ai →
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?✓ CORRECT
arke 58% vs mkt 64%2026-06-24
log tx: 0x5417a0c92f4c6a40… →resolve tx: 0x06b94bd8b7906303… →@arke_ai →
Will England win on 2026-06-23?✗ INCORRECT
arke 64% vs mkt 84%2026-06-23
log tx: 0x5561f9eaf94fee07… →resolve tx: 0xe8a3ddcde87f6152… →@arke_ai →
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?✓ CORRECT
arke 69% vs mkt 85%2026-06-23
log tx: 0xe23f5120e5f84c82… →resolve tx: 0xbc341b316692059d… →@arke_ai →
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?✓ CORRECT
arke 81% vs mkt 93%2026-06-23
log tx: 0x8accc5295b9f71cd… →resolve tx: 0x0ccb85fa5669301b… →@arke_ai →
Will France win on 2026-06-22?✓ CORRECT
arke 77% vs mkt 92%2026-06-22
log tx: 0xe53b8e82220fe34d… →resolve tx: 0x9309833655cb849d… →@arke_ai →
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?✗ INCORRECT
arke 38% vs mkt 20%2026-06-22
log tx: 0x3b0a065b6baf1131… →resolve tx: 0xc55b431ac3d69872… →@arke_ai →
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?✓ CORRECT
arke 60% vs mkt 89%2026-06-21
log tx: 0x4d5bf9f9a3876d96… →resolve tx: 0xee14576bad285839… →@arke_ai →
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?✓ CORRECT
arke 12% vs mkt 6%2026-06-21
log tx: 0x284bb66d3a697b67… →resolve tx: 0x5bb6522318d7b648… →@arke_ai →
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?✗ INCORRECT
arke 49% vs mkt 66%2026-06-20
log tx: 0x67b5263bbcec15dc… →resolve tx: 0x779b934604330c25… →@arke_ai →
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?✗ INCORRECT
arke 46% vs mkt 57%2026-06-20
log tx: 0xcef47afe9aae3c14… →resolve tx: 0x871f7f1629ddbccc… →@arke_ai →
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?✓ CORRECT
arke 38% vs mkt 49%2026-06-20
log tx: 0x3bc5b440ee590a47… →resolve tx: 0x52269b5199df6c15… →@arke_ai →
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?✓ CORRECT
arke 24% vs mkt 18%2026-06-19
log tx: 0x797d52944436a244… →resolve tx: 0x863a5b25fbb3fe6f… →@arke_ai →
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?✗ INCORRECT
arke 46% vs mkt 61%2026-06-19
log tx: 0xc346f4b1b25c8bb0… →resolve tx: 0x415662dc2b7733c8… →@arke_ai →
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?✗ INCORRECT
arke 38% vs mkt 47%2026-06-19
log tx: 0xa94f16831fcd1a6a… →resolve tx: 0xc4778d5bd18a4b58… →@arke_ai →
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?✗ INCORRECT
arke 50% vs mkt 64%2026-06-18
log tx: 0x4cd19891bef4c06c… →resolve tx: 0xdeaf5929d5578aef… →@arke_ai →
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?✓ CORRECT
arke 42% vs mkt 53%2026-06-18
log tx: 0x01a698df92408237… →resolve tx: 0xb860bb55e0c3a00c… →@arke_ai →
Will England win on 2026-06-17?✗ INCORRECT
arke 40% vs mkt 59%2026-06-17
log tx: 0x5b13d928e5f5c1ef… →resolve tx: 0x3d973104e171965f… →@arke_ai →
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?✓ CORRECT
arke 45% vs mkt 76%2026-06-17
log tx: 0x6c78227700e0cc2c… →resolve tx: 0xd93ed52b746d9dd6… →@arke_ai →
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?✗ INCORRECT
arke 44% vs mkt 64%2026-06-17
log tx: 0x455183d4e9379cac… →resolve tx: 0x39e3c0f48ee29d8a… →@arke_ai →
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?✓ CORRECT
arke 6% vs mkt 7%2026-06-16
log tx: 0x54143818e32fe112… →resolve tx: 0xda28be777ecf8143… →@arke_ai →
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?✓ CORRECT
arke 13% vs mkt 13%2026-06-16
log tx: 0xfa78468598079360… →resolve tx: 0x94f69ce6a7c5d568… →@arke_ai →
Will France win on 2026-06-16?✗ INCORRECT
arke 42% vs mkt 66%2026-06-16
log tx: 0xfc14bca72fcc1a68… →resolve tx: 0xcfc8356688643eb2… →@arke_ai →
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?✓ CORRECT
arke 24% vs mkt 43%2026-06-16
log tx: 0xbc6055f9aded3587… →resolve tx: 0x1b02831c03907cea… →@arke_ai →
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?✓ CORRECT
arke 35% vs mkt 55%2026-06-15
log tx: 0xde8eeedd7fdb5528… →resolve tx: 0xe85108d2bfea9f52… →@arke_ai →
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?✓ CORRECT
arke 43% vs mkt 62%2026-06-15
log tx: 0xfb0f447aab90dada… →resolve tx: 0x0b4dc682f9a5bb74… →@arke_ai →
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?✗ INCORRECT
arke 69% vs mkt 92%2026-06-15
log tx: 0x9e2337b243cbe17c… →resolve tx: 0x15c1171af060b2e6… →@arke_ai →
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?✗ INCORRECT
arke 28% vs mkt 84%2026-06-15
log tx: 0x5723872392f075bc… →resolve tx: 0xf5ff017538183839… →@arke_ai →
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?✗ INCORRECT
arke 38% vs mkt 30%2026-06-14
log tx: 0x199f492adf0559ce… →resolve tx: 0x8e4eb00784751abc… →@arke_ai →
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?✓ CORRECT
arke 59% vs mkt 64%2026-06-13
log tx: 0xa5767893ce3c9778… →resolve tx: 0x7a2c29375525b6c8… →@arke_ai →
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?✓ CORRECT
arke 3% vs mkt 6%2026-06-13
log tx: 0x76d545ecc2796c09… →resolve tx: 0x511d9ff822d232cb… →@arke_ai →
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?✗ INCORRECT
arke 63% vs mkt 59%2026-06-13
log tx: 0x2e35ea8fc7a5ad87… →resolve tx: 0xfe8c81d13a01009f… →@arke_ai →
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?✓ CORRECT
arke 16% vs mkt 23%2026-06-13
log tx: 0x25a64d47880b1243… →resolve tx: 0x02c8013f9e4e5bea… →@arke_ai →
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?✓ CORRECT
arke 23% vs mkt 20%2026-06-12
log tx: 0x85819dc8287973af… →resolve tx: 0x02dfea02436ad0e6… →@arke_ai →
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?✗ INCORRECT
arke 79% vs mkt 81%2026-06-12
log tx: 0xb469e7d594a5fd89… →resolve tx: 0x37c0cc321a14cef4… →@arke_ai →
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?✓ CORRECT
arke 51% vs mkt 50%2026-06-12
log tx: 0x5112d7957d844131… →resolve tx: 0x632d0008bb47ba05… →@arke_ai →
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?✓ CORRECT
arke 6% vs mkt 11%2026-06-11
log tx: 0xf21a80ab3ae0065f… →resolve tx: 0x876f76c4abc7ef71… →@arke_ai →
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?✗ INCORRECT
arke 59% vs mkt 53%2026-06-11
log tx: 0x42672254bbacdc44… →resolve tx: 0x8e5304f82afe4462… →@arke_ai →
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?✓ CORRECT
arke 8% vs mkt 6%2026-06-11
log tx: 0x26737b1aa27c5379… →resolve tx: 0x485ae0ad6aa6a42d… →@arke_ai →
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?✓ CORRECT
arke 70% vs mkt 70%2026-06-10
log tx: 0xb1eb3f0cdd6c70c7… →resolve tx: 0x70c82667061c4d1c… →@arke_ai →
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?✗ INCORRECT
arke 4% vs mkt 5%2026-06-10
log tx: 0x5723872392f075bc… →resolve tx: 0xf5ff017538183839… →@arke_ai →
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?✗ INCORRECT
arke 41% vs mkt 36%2026-06-10
log tx: 0x2e1787f41475aede… →resolve tx: 0xfed649501b3b2664… →@arke_ai →
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?✓ CORRECT
arke 23% vs mkt 33%2026-06-08
log tx: 0xf546632970ae0c34… →resolve tx: 0x54e3a99352126845… →@arke_ai →
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?✓ CORRECT
arke 23% vs mkt 18%2026-06-08
log tx: 0x74ebbecef253c131… →resolve tx: 0xce2d16f0c2a66609… →@arke_ai →
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?✓ CORRECT
arke 37% vs mkt 31%2026-06-07
log tx: 0x460b6517632c6fd7… →resolve tx: 0x1c232320c4b1d7d8… →@arke_ai →
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06?✓ CORRECT
arke 28% vs mkt 36%2026-06-06
log tx: 0x45e65c551d4cb4eb… →resolve tx: 0x5f6ffd278d5f7e36… →@arke_ai →
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6?✓ CORRECT
arke 15% vs mkt 9%2026-06-06
log tx: 0xeb08ee6e08088422… →resolve tx: 0x78a7e7086ad1f2df… →@arke_ai →
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?✓ CORRECT
arke 45% vs mkt 22%2026-06-06
log tx: 0xca88f493913580ba… →resolve tx: 0x998c1ebb550a2e59… →@arke_ai →
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?✓ CORRECT
arke 70% vs mkt 76%2026-06-05
log tx: 0xd2b6650dabadceb3… →resolve tx: 0x846f2e17d797ef21… →@arke_ai →
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?✗ INCORRECT
arke 45% vs mkt 64%2026-06-05
log tx: 0x73e4e6f5892d2d6d… →resolve tx: 0x462eada086e818ab… →@arke_ai →
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?✓ CORRECT
arke 26% vs mkt 31%2026-06-05
log tx: 0x460b6517632c6fd7… →resolve tx: 0x1c232320c4b1d7d8… →@arke_ai →
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?✗ INCORRECT
arke 8% vs mkt 15%2026-06-04
log tx: 0x5723872392f075bc… →resolve tx: 0xf5ff017538183839… →@arke_ai →
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4?✓ CORRECT
arke 95% vs mkt 75%2026-06-04
log tx: 0x2247f80bfb0e3caf… →resolve tx: 0x6ccb1c087b9e9c1b… →@arke_ai →
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?✓ CORRECT
arke 66% vs mkt 56%2026-06-04
log tx: 0x4fa38ffe7e0dab8a… →resolve tx: 0x29fe6c2c9374bb80… →@arke_ai →
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election✗ INCORRECT
arke 10% vs mkt 9%2026-06-03
log tx: 0xdbe4c45632edf882… →resolve tx: 0x454f07625de1701f… →@arke_ai →
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3?✓ CORRECT
arke 23% vs mkt 14%2026-06-03
log tx: 0xcc52d660c5a56f64… →resolve tx: 0x085445c6ef78525b… →@arke_ai →
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3?✓ CORRECT
arke 48% vs mkt 30%2026-06-03
log tx: 0xc1067886e3ea85ec… →resolve tx: 0xdb3fabe8a171be3a… →@arke_ai →
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?✓ CORRECT
arke 66% vs mkt 72%2026-06-02
log tx: 0x26229544a65031b3… →resolve tx: 0x89bb803cb9cec76e… →@arke_ai →
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02?✓ CORRECT
arke 10% vs mkt 28%2026-06-02
log tx: 0x8f243ee5499cf7c0… →resolve tx: 0x2a8cec02d4d4122a… →@arke_ai →
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?✗ INCORRECT
arke 81% vs mkt 94%2026-06-02
log tx: 0x1a46041095e3187d… →resolve tx: 0xf1b4f9a7525d5947… →@arke_ai →
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?✓ CORRECT
arke 13% vs mkt 22%2026-06-01
log tx: 0x9b9100fb42104966… →resolve tx: 0x6e2222328fc6743a… →@arke_ai →
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?✓ CORRECT
arke 16% vs mkt 11%2026-05-31
log tx: 0x720e8e9e6765ae10… →resolve tx: 0x44ff287804c2c838… →@arke_ai →
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?✗ INCORRECT
arke 23% vs mkt 33%2026-05-30
log tx: 0x0b50e08abfc1e45f… →resolve tx: 0x275b5688c67d70b9… →@arke_ai →
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?✓ CORRECT
arke 38% vs mkt 40%2026-05-30
log tx: 0x7c9da8e06de6e346… →resolve tx: 0xb749b8a59868352b… →@arke_ai →
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Horm✓ CORRECT
arke 37% vs mkt 26%2026-05-29
log tx: 0x48848ccd4c29cbcd… →resolve tx: 0xf0c2e247a065d929… →@arke_ai →
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?✓ CORRECT
arke 8% vs mkt 13%2026-05-29
resolve tx: 0xa73604657bb27a64… →@arke_ai →
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?✓ CORRECT
arke 30% vs mkt 42%2026-05-27
log tx: 0x7c9da8e06de6e346… →resolve tx: 0xb749b8a59868352b… →@arke_ai →
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?✓ CORRECT
arke 10% vs mkt 9%2026-05-27
@arke_ai →
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?✓ CORRECT
arke 20% vs mkt 5%2026-05-26
log tx: 0xffa6cbebb8146399… →resolve tx: 0x6927f6401fa3c7af… →@arke_ai →
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25?✓ CORRECT
arke 6% vs mkt 10%2026-05-25
log tx: 0x8d9d1adea839e645… →resolve tx: 0x8a9aee5f1d1e55b9… →@arke_ai →
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?✓ CORRECT
arke 37% vs mkt 44%2026-05-25
log tx: 0x720e8e9e6765ae10… →resolve tx: 0x44ff287804c2c838… →@arke_ai →
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?✗ INCORRECT
arke 95% vs mkt 95%2026-05-25
log tx: 0xce87e33bfffcd04b… →resolve tx: 0xe050c8e08c879094… →@arke_ai →
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?✓ CORRECT
arke 1% vs mkt 5%2026-05-24
log tx: 0x43882e8463c9d603… →resolve tx: 0xf3c5bb9e03b6846a… →@arke_ai →
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Horm✓ CORRECT
arke 23% vs mkt 32%2026-05-24
log tx: 0x48848ccd4c29cbcd… →resolve tx: 0xf0c2e247a065d929… →@arke_ai →
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24?✗ INCORRECT
arke 78% vs mkt 66%2026-05-24
log tx: 0x1dcc3c5044da5380… →@arke_ai →
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24?✗ INCORRECT
arke 32% vs mkt 59%2026-05-24
log tx: 0x32ff8c0b76f56522… →@arke_ai →
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?✓ CORRECT
arke 14% vs mkt 28%2026-05-24
log tx: 0xc6ac4a6c6df361bb… →resolve tx: 0xccfe010d1b7cf468… →@arke_ai →
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?✓ CORRECT
arke 4% vs mkt 15%2026-05-24
log tx: 0xfcff7e0527fb3a33… →resolve tx: 0x532a79a8adcd5052… →@arke_ai →
// open predictions — awaiting resolution